thejimsheet

Played a quick session at the Venetian today.   As I’ve mentioned before, it’s a thin line between being a winner and a loser.   I was pretty proud of my play on one hand, in that I would not have played it as well a while back, and pretty disappointed in another.   I’ll take them chronologically.

I sit down and fold for a couple orbits.   I play a pot with 88, with the 8s on a T96 all spade board, but end up folding the turn when the ten pairs.   So, I’m down a bit.   I raise to 10 on one hand, and take the blinds, which makes sense since I’ve been playing tight and the table isn’t crazy.  On the very next hand, I have 33 and raise to 10 again.   Only the big blind calls.    Flop is Q52 rainbow, he checks, I c-bet 20, he tanks and then pushes all-in.   It’s 60 more to me.   I can barely beat a bluff and don’t have any reason to think this guy is bluffing.   I call anyways, he shows me TT, and now I’m really stuck.   What a dumb call.   There is just no reason to call there.

Ok, now that that’s out of the way….

I tread water for awhile.   I win a few pots, chop a couple with KQ on Q high boards, get KK and QQ cracked, and basically just sit there waiting.    Then, the good.   I’m in the BB.   UTG limps.   A fold and then the guy in MP raises to 7.   It’s a silly raise, but he had been raising about 20% of his hands.   And, btw, he was fairly easy to read.   He didn’t raise anything but pairs and big cards.   He got married to hands.   He had been down to 50 and over 400 twice since I sat down.   And, he was wearing an Ocean Pacific shirt, so that’s cool.   Ok, so OP raises to 7 and I look at the deuce of spades.   A couple calls, and I decide that I’m only calling if I see another deuce or the Ace of Spades.  While Mimi in the SB is calling, I peel the other deuce.   Ok, I call, too.   UTG smooth calls, and I joke that he should have pushed, which he admits considering.   Flop AJ2 rainbow.   Wheeeeee.   Mimi checks, I check, utg checks, OP bets 12 and there are two calls to me.   We had seen the flop 7 ways.   Now, the old me check/raises here.   But, I think I lose some action, and maybe all action if I do that.   What am I scared of?   I call the 12 and so does utg.   So, we see the K on the turn five ways.   I already know that there’s about 100 in the pot, so I bet 50.   Wow.  What a great bet.  I can still get away depending on who and how someone raises me.   But, I also get value from all kinds of hands that are drawing thin.   utg folds, OP calls, button calls, and Mimi folds.    Button, btw, is a dumbass.   Middle-aged guy (only about 8 years older than me; fucking shit I’m old) who complains about losing with good hands and bad hands, which is usually a pretty good sign that you misplay all hands, you dumby.   Anyways, 9 on the river doesn’t change anything.   I think I would have heard from a bigger set or QT on the turn, and pocket 99 doesn’t make sense for either at this point.   But, I think I’m getting called in at least one spot, so I push.    162 more.   OP makes a face and calls.   Button talks about making a big laydown - I’m guessing like AT, but maybe AQ - not really a big laydown.   I show my set and OP shows his AJ.   I go home soon thereafter, a winner, although not as much as I could have been due to my own stupidity.

1. Alabama - Don’t count them out on Saturday.

2. UT - No way OU is better, but que sera, sera.

3. UF - Dangerous.   I think they’ll be a solid favorite in the NC if they can beat ‘Bama.

4. USC - They’re legit.

5. OU

6. Texas Tech - Cotton Bowl against Ol’ Miss is not a good matchup for the Red Raiders.

7. Boise State - I am not saying they’ll be in the BCS, but I am saying they’re better than Utah.  We’ll see when they join the MWC, as I think both teams are going to sustain for awhile.

8. Penn State

9. Oregon - The ‘Quizz was out, but damn.

10. Ohio State

11. Oklahoma State

12. Cincy

13. BC - The game against VT won’t be hyped much, but it should be interesting.

14. Utah

15. GT - They are good, and this is Johnson’s first year.   Watch out, kids.

16. Mizzou - KU was an anomaly.   I think a rematch against UT would have been better for the possibility of an upset, but the possibility is still there - fo’ sho’.

17. Ball State - one more hurdle; the Buffalo Gills.

18. TCU - I wish they’d get the invite to the Vegas Bowl, but almost officially the Mormons are coming back.

19. Ol’ Miss - It was not a mistake for Arkansas to fire Nutt; he was done there.   But, that doesn’t mean he’s not one heck of a coach.

20. Oregon State - Rose in LA to possibly the Sun in El Paso.   Sux.

21. BYU

22. Georgia - I think they’ll roll in the bowl; whichever they land in.

23. Va. Tech

24. FSU

25. Pitt

A lot will figure itself out in the next couple weeks.   For now, here are my rankings and some reasoning:

1. Alabama - In my mind, this is the only team that will have a legit beef if they run the table and get slighted, but that won’t happen, so no worries.

2. Florida - People are starting to see that Ol’ Miss is for real, and UF is playing out of their heads right now.    Will be interesting to see how they play against FSU on Saturday.
3. USC - Another team whose loss isn’t so bad, and another team that is very good.

4. UT - I’m not keeping them ahead of OU because they beat OU.   By now, my fictional readers know that I don’t bother with that.   But, if UT and OU were playing on a neutral field in a bowl game, I’d take UT, although it’d be close (and a game I’d love to watch).

5. OU - Wow.   What a great game they played Saturday.   Very impressive.   Their game against Okie State is one of only a few that is must-see this week.

6. Texas Tech - Anyone who watched Tech play all year couldn’t have been too surprised by Saturday.   And, anyone saying that Tech is now obviously NOT a top 10 team is kneejerking.

7. Boise State - Utah will go to the BCS, but I’d take Boise in a neutral field battle.

8. Mizzou - Can they upset the South champ (whothefuckever that will be)?

9. OSU

10. OSU

11. OSU - in one of the few comments, I got positive reinforcement for my ambiguity surrounding these three teams last week, so here they are again.   Two have big games this week, and the other is done until the bowl.   How dumb is it that the Big Ten doesn’t adjust their schedule?

12. Penn State

13. Oregon - everyone seems to be taking for granted that they’ll lose in Corvallis, but I’d be surprised if the line is more than a FG, and Oregon would be favored if it was in Eugene.

14. Utah - A good win on Saturday.   You have to give them credit, but I just don’t think they’re “that” good.

15. Cincy - Another team with a good win on Saturday.   I expected Pitt to beat them.   If they can hang on to Kelly for one more year, which seems less and less likely, they’ll be in the National Championship hunt next year.

16. Georgia - They got killed by UF and for one half by ‘Bama, but they’ve won the rest and would beat a lot of teams on a neutral field.   I expect them to look good in whatever bowl they go to.

17. Georgia Tech - Paul Johnson is a damn good coach, apparently.   The UGa./GT game is one I’ll try to watch, too.

18. TCU - They “should” have beat Utah and they lost to OU.

19. FSU - Wow.  I saw some of this game on replay.   Like all ACC teams, they’re up and down, but when they’re on, they look good.   I don’t expect them to give UF a real challenge, but wouldn’t it be cool if they did?

20. WVU - Pat White is good.

21. Ball State - I was a little surprised they beat CMU.   A win tomorrow against WMU and they’re “perfect” despite losing their star WR early in the year.  For me, that game is another must-see.

22. Northwestern - At this point in the rankings, I could say that the coach of each team is doing a good job.   Pat Fitzgerald has to be on that list, which actually surprises me.   We’ll see if he can keep it up year-to-year.

23. Michigan State

24. WMU

25. BC - they edge out the C-USA teams since I think they’d win.

Must-see games this week:  WMU/Ball State tomorrow at 4PT, OU/Ok. St. Saturday time TBA, and UO/OSU Saturday at 4PT

Other interesting games: TAMU/UT Thursday 5PT, WVU/Pitt Friday 9amPT, and Saturday (GT/UGa., UF/FSU, Auburn/Bama, and maybe five minutes of ND/USC)

I am very thankful for much in my life.   Heather and my family are visiting this week, so I probably won’t be around to post much (and likely won’t be playing much poker or doing much sports research).   I’ll post my new top 25 in a minute, but then probably won’t post again until next Monday.

Currently, thejimsheet is only 39-43 in college football, and has only started 5-6 in college basketball.   But, we are 25-13 so far in the NFL and we’re off to a 7-3 start in the NBA.

Happy Thanksgiving to all (any) of you reading.

None.

MP raise to 10.   Button calls.   I am sb, see AA.   I smooth call.   Flop J56.  I check.   MP bets 15.   He’s getting short.   Huge stack on button calls.   I c/r to 45 hoping to isolate small stack.    He calls.   Button calls.    Turn Ad (putting two diamonds out there).   I check.   MP checks.   Button bets 55.   I c/r all-in for like 220.   MP calls his last 23 or so.   Button almost insta-folds.   I show, MP drawing dead with TT.   I win a nice pot.

But, for the first time in awhile, I basically jizzed all over myself.   I waited for awhile after his bet, but after the Ace came, I was so tunnel focused on getting the money in that I didn’t stop to think about the best way to do that.  Here’s the thing.   Button has to have a hand to call a c/r on the flop.   He’s a good, thinking player.   His range probably includes all pairs 5+ (obv. including sets), AJ, maybe weaker Jacks (if we are including 77-TT, we pretty much have to consider all Jacks he would call a raise with pre), 56, and 78.    That’s about it.    He later claimed that he folded AJ, which I believed, and said I should have smooth-called the turn.  This is possible, and obviously the better action given a check.   He is so unlikely to bet there on a draw, because he has to show up with a hand, that I should not be fearing any card.   But, I think my real mistake was not betting out the turn (45 again or somesuch).   Given his exact hand, this would have been the best course, but I think it’s probably the best course for almost his whole range.    MP still calls all-in (he obviously played the hand badly, so I won’t disect his play).   Then, button is pretty much forced to raise and commit himself the vast majority of his range that he would put any more money in the pot with anyway.

Play and learn.

I played a long session at the Venetian last night, but one hand sticks out.

Middle aged guy raises to 12 utg+1.   The only hand I had seen him play was QJ on a flop of 9TK where he got it in against a set.   I have 99.   I call.   Three other callers.   Flop Q98 with two diamonds.   He bets 35.   I raise to 105.   He stacks off for 173 more (so it’s 173 to win about 420, or almost 2.5:1).   I thought I was beat.   I asked him if he had QQ.   He told me he was taking my chips if I called.   I said ok, but do you have QQ?   He said he had a straight.   I said ok.   I said I don’t think I can fold.   I ended up calling.   He shows QQ and somehow I miss my one out.

I think this is a hand I can get away from.   I also think a raise to about 85 would have achieved the same result.   Of course, I could just be fixated because I lost.   I think a lot of players just get it in there and don’t look back.   But, realistically, what’s his range?   And, how heavily does it need to be weighted to QQ (and JT) for me to correctly fold given the action?   Interesting.

MIA -5.5 v. IND

Pitt +6 @ Cincy

BC +2 @ Wake

UW -7 @ Wazzu

Houston -17 v. UTEP

Iowa -6 @ Minn.

Oregon State +2.5 @ Zona

L’ville +7 v. WVU

LSU -3.5 v. Miss.

No NFL yet.

No picks.