I have been inundated by e-mail. A virtual deluge of demand for my football previews has flooded my inbox. I will write them, but to be honest, spending hours on the NFL one, only to have it disappear, was a beating.
I know that you all will understand. I also know that you will not understand if you don’t get my picks for this kickoff weekend of college football.
Take:
Utah +3 @ Michigan
and
Nebraska - 14.5 v. W. Michigan
That’s it.
I posted that I had a good time with friends out the past week. In my mind, there should probably be more poker analysis here, so that I’m thinking deliberately (as opposed to my 24/7 random poker thoughts) about hands. NOTE: I am a good player, but I’m probably not as good as I sound like when I relay these hands. And, clearly, the difference between a winning hand, or even a week, and a losing one, is very thin.
Here’s 3, no 4, no, a bunch of hands:
1. Rob and Chris had gotten in with their wives early Wednesday. We went to the Venetian after meeting at TI, to play a little poker. The table started after a few minutes, so we’re all on the same table. Fairly typical weekday morning table, which is why I don’t play much at that time.
THE HAND - I had built a rapport with the guys around me, so that I could more easily take their money. The guy to my right was a total donk, who had apparently spent a week straight staying at the Venetian and playing poker, without learning anything. If anything, I’d say he’d had his bad hypotheses proven correct incorrectly. LOL. Anyways, a few limpers, he raises to 6 in the cutoff, I look down to see J2ss on the button, and decide to play it strong. Despite the fact that the J2 nuts has become a famous hand for a few of us after Collin used it to knock me out of a three man drunken tourney, I usually just chuckle to myself and muck it. I would have been making this move with almost any two, as the “time” was right. Sure enough, if folded back to the donk, who, surprisingly, made the call. The flop comes Q84, all clubs. He bets out 40. Ummmm, huh? I was actually happy with the call preflop, as a continuation bet is going to take the pot a very large percentage of the time, and I’m getting 20 more bucks than if he had folded. His bet throws me off. Either he flopped big (the nut flush or a set), flopped mediocre and is trying to figure out “where he’s at” (AQ, KK no club, TT with a club, or something like that), or he’s bluffing representing clubs. I study him, and he’s not strong. So, I’ll take the pot. I look at his chips, and he’s only got a little over 100 behind. I go into full Hollywood mode. Now, I bluff more than I used to at 1/2nl (due to the tables getting a little tougher, IMO). But, I don’t Hollywood much, as I think most people either don’t pay attention or see right through it. But, this guy was perfect. I say, I think I’ve got to still be ahead here. Then, I ask him if he really only has about 100 left. He seems surprised. I then, very deliberately, stack 40 in chips to match his bet, stack it on top of one of my 100 stacks, and push it in. He doesn’t instacall. I say, whew, I was right. I tell him if he hasn’t called yet, I’ve got him beat. At this point, I think most players at the table knew I was bluffing, but I don’t care. He folds, and I stack up a decent pot.
I ended up donking off that profit and previous small profit, for my only losing session of the PDC visit (-12).
2. Back at the Venetian on Thursday, the plan is for the three of us to play the noon tourney. This will be my only tourney of their visit. I register a couple minutes late, then get to the table to find out I’m directly to Chris’s left. That sucks. I go on to play extremely tight, but aggressive. The structure there is very good, but you “can’t” just donk off chips, because it’s not that good for that long. I take my 7500 stack up to about 10500 by the time the hand comes up. Rob is out (and steaming) after losing with KK on the 5th hand and a big chunk with AA later to cripple him. Chris has been in some tough spots. He’s playing well, but down to probably around 5k.
THE HAND - I am in the cutoff with AA. Blinds are 100/200, and I’m somewhere right around 10300 after forfeiting both my blinds. The old man two to my right limps. He’s been limping about 40% of the pots preflop. He’s shown the ability to lay down hands preflop. He’s shown the ability to call preflop and call down after hitting a piece without monsters. He’s shown the ability to stab at weakness when it presents itself. He was an early chipleader, spewed down to about 4500, and then doubled up and stole some to currently be on about 12k. Chris, who has also been playing tight, raises to 600. I am disappointed. I’m not going to just call a raise here in any situation, but I especially see no reason to try to take Chris’s chips. I reraise to 1800, knowing that it will fold around to me. That’s cool. I’m playing well. Well, the old man calls my reraise. We had only played one other hand (I had raised limpers with TT, he had called and mucked to a c-bet on a A33 flop). But, I felt like I had a good line on him, and presumed that he did on me (you can tell now the bad beat story is coming, as if you didn’t know already). The flop comes 983. I honestly don’t remember suits, so it was probably rainbow, but I wouldn’t swear to it. He checks. Sometimes, when someone checks, you sense strength. I didn’t. I bet out 2200. He fairly quickly check-raised to 4500. I won’t lie and say I thought it out thoroughly, but at the time I really thought I was ahead. I just didn’t see him playing a hand that beat me this way. I go all-in, he shows 33, I get no help and IGHN.
I was mad. I told him his preflop call was horrible. When I called Heather, I was shaking. I don’t see how people grind these little tournaments. I have lost more money without it affecting me, but this hurt. If I related the hand to myself, I would tell myself he had to have me beat to checkraise in that spot. He could have 33, 88, 99, or 89. Yeah, maybe he does it with JT or A9 or somesuch, but probably not. He could do it with KK, QQ, JJ, or TT, but his limp combined with calling a reraise make it unlikely. I will say that despite that analysis, I don’t hate my play. Chris was supportive, saying he agreed with getting it in there, but he might have just been being nice. I think the best line probably would have been to call the check-raise to see if he was serious on the turn, as I’d seen him check down big pots. Folding wouldn’t have been horrible, as it leaves me with plenty of chips. I don’t know. I’m trying to forget about it. LOL.
3. I stew for a bit, then decide I’m ok to play cash games until Chris gets knocked out (hopefully late). The table, like Wednesday afternoon, is pretty tight. I’m passing time here, folding out of position, raising in position, taking flops and folding when I don’t hit. I’m down a little, so I buy another 100 (originally in for 200). I’m sitting on about 240.
THE HAND - I get 22 in the small blind. One limp to a middle position guy who likes to raise, but I’ve seen him call when clearly behind only to suck out and double. I’ve seen unable to get away from AA when someone had a set (or should have, they had QQ and donked their stack away, lol). So, he’s got chips that belong in my stack. He raises to 12. The button calls. Whew. I might have had to fold my mighty deuce deuce. I call, bb folds, limper folds. Flop come QcTc2d. Wheeeeeee! I check. Homes bets 20. Button raises to 60. I like that and I don’t. Button has a real hand, even if homes doesn’t. But, it’s good, in that now I can just push and pray (since I don’t like to think). I push. Preflop raiserman folds. Button instacalls. Shit. Set over set, I say aloud, as I flip my twos. NO??? He has AA. Dumby. River is the Kc, and he has the Ac, so a shitton of outs, all of which I avoid. Thank you.
I make a little more, and leave the Venetian a winner, even with the tourney cost.
Tom has informed me that he is not interested in drunk bowling, so we scheduled a sushi outing/drunk bowling experience for Thursday before Tommy hits town on Friday. I Love Sushi was awesome, as always. What happens at the Strike Zone mostly stays at the Strike Zone, but it was a great trip, too.
I’m hungover on Friday. Heather asks me, WHILE I’M ASLEEP, if I want to get up and go to Red Rock. Duh. I don’t want to do anything while I’m asleep. So, the trip gets postponed, and I instead meet up with the guys at the IP. We hang, eat dinner, then I’m off to grab Tommy at the airport. Eventually, we meet back up, get Rob off craps and Chris off slots, and head to Caesar’s. I kinda hope we all sit down and get a beer together, but Tom is on a mission and Rob is kinda, too. They immediately sit in at 1/3. After a while of hanging outside the poker room and PURE, Amanda, Chris and I decide to walk around Caesar’s before checking back in on the guys. We get three steps before Rob stops us. He informs us that he’s out (flopped set v. turned flush), tired of getting kicked in the junk, and headed for bed. The three of us grab a beer before they also head back.
4. And, I buy in to the table behind Tom.
Great table. Best I’ve been at in awhile. Foreign guy. New Yorker expert guy. Really, really drunk guy. Tight/weak lady who wants to be LAGGY but can’t. Truly LAGGY Asian guy. Chinese-American kid who overthinks everything (he’ll come up again later, btw). I know what everyone has. This is fun. Except, whoops, I have no fucking cards and no good spots to steal. I lose some when I call pre with KJ, flop a K, checkraise foreign guy who pushes, and I have to muck. He shows KQ. No shit? Thanks, douche, I knew before you showed me. He wasn’t really a douche, but it sounds better. Anyways, I’m down, so I again buy 100 (I don’t actually get chips - it’s late) after being in for 200 originally. I’m at about 240 again when this hand comes up.
THE HAND - Tight/weak/unlucky/fat lady raises to 10 utg. She ain’t doing this with nothing, but it’s not AA or KK, either, as she would have raised more. LAGGY man calls. I call. What do you have, Jim? I have KK. What the fuck are you doing, Jim? I’m playing suboptimally on purpose to mix it up, ok. Ok, whatever, Jim. Foreign guy calls (btw, he lives in Houston, and had lived in Jersey before that, so he’s maybe no longer foreign, but his English sucks so he’s Foreign guy). Four to the flop for 10 each. Flop Q97 rainbow. Foreign guy checks. Dumby chic bets 25. I know she’s got something, but not as good as me. I’m good. I see through cards like that guy on ‘Tilt’. Laggy man folds. I raise to 75. Foreign guy folds. She studies, thinks, plays with her chips. She doesn’t like it. She wants so much to be a gambler, but she doesn’t have it in her. She’s a weakling, and probably always will be. Nice lady. I’d bet money she makes good casseroles. But, not a poker player, despite all her time spent wanting to be a poker player. She finally calls. Turn is another 7, putting two clubs on the board. She weakly checks. I shrug my shoulders, say I’m all in forcefully, then slide the chips and the bill past the line. She doesn’t like it. Foreign guy had hit quads on her, and she had to rebuy. This is the last of her fun funds. She finally calls. I flip over my kings. I fill up on the river with a K. She starts to act like it was the river that hurt her, and later claims she turned the flush draw with her AQ. Maybe. Whatever. I win.
Eventually, I check on Tom. He says, you wanna go? I say, YES, I’ll cash in and wait for you outside. By the time I see him again, he didn’t need to cash out after running his straight into ‘the joint’.
Saturday, I drop Tom off at Bellagio, pick up Chris and Amanda, and head out to Red Rock. I won’t go into too much detail, but I love it out there. I got to hike a lot farther then before, because I had Chris to go with me and Heather had her parents to turn back with her. Wheeeee! Did I mention I like it out there? I then go to Red Rock casino looking like I got in the shower clothed, but I don’t care. I telecommute a ff draft, say goodbyes to Rob, Chris, and their wives, and head home. Quick nap and Alan is in town! Drove in from LA for one night. What a guy! I reward him by taking him to drink beer and lose to me at pool, which we both enjoy immensely. Tom goes to sleep when we get home, but Dave, Alan, Heather and I play 5 crowns (a dumb card game that’s good for hanging out, like spades, although it plays more like gin). I run out of wimpy beer, and decide I need to have vodka and juice. Not a good idea. Very drunk.
I sleep in a little on Saturday, and by the time I’m up, Tom is really ready to head out.
5. We head to the Venetian. I sit down, win some money, get up. Cash out. Tom and I get a snack at the upstairs food court. We head back. I sit down, win some money.
THE HAND - Overthinking Chinese-American kid from Caesar’s is at the other end of the table (4 seat, I’m in the 
. I limp in MP with 68dd. I love limpy tables, obviously. A couple more limpers to the kid, who is in the sb, and raises to 16. BB calls, two limpers call, ok, I’m calling, two more limpers call. Six way pot for 16. Awesome. Flop is K84, two diamonds. Kid bets 60. Thanks for defining your hand, kid. I know he has either AA, or AK. No range necessary. Folds to me, I push for about 270. Folds to him. He overthinks it, but quickly, and calls for his last 150. He asks if I have a set or two pair, I say no, show him, he flips AA. Turn Td. River blank. I win.
He says after this that I shouldn’t have called his bet with a flush draw. I tell him that I pushed and that I had a pair to go with my flush draw. He thinks a lot, but incorrectly, and continues to mutter about my bad play. Kid, I’m not going anywhere with what I know is a coinflip, with fold equity, with all that dead money in the middle. I’m just not. You may have even been ok laying it down if you knew how I played, as a coinflip was the best result against my range.
6. I’m not in this one (for long), so no into needed. Same table
THE HAND - Lady raises to 5 utg. Her buddy calls next to her. Folds to Asian man in cutoff, who puts out 12. I don’t think he knew it was 5, thinking they had put out red chips to call 2. I look down to see 77. I call, blinds fold, utg lady reraises to 30 uncomfortably. Buddy folds. Guy pushes for 150 even. Damnit, bitch, I wanted to see a flop. Why did you reopen the action? I fold. He’s defined his range. She’s defined hers, which is usually ahead of his, but it becomes clear she has AK when she thinks before calling. She’s giggly. She mentions calling because she’s in Vegas to have fun. She flips AKs, he flips JJ, and it’s off to the races until the flop comes AArag. She stacks him and gigglemonsters and stacks chips.
The guys to my left talk (between me and the dealer in the 9 and 10) about the hand quietly. Both have immaculately stacked their chips and fancy their playing style, despite being losers over the long term (guaranteed). They agree. “It was a bad call.” “Yeah, a horrible call but a great result.” Blech. Just like the kid, these guys think about the game a lot, but incorrectly. AsiaMan, like, never has AA or KK, especially when she has AK. She’s racing, and it’s 120 to win 200 (minus 4 in rake, fuck). It would be a horrible fold, idiots. I’m not saying she made it for the right reasons, but it was a good, if easy, call. I should love the fact that these fuckers around me like to spout off incorrect monkeyshit. But, it annoys me. I somehow resist the urge to teach them about the game. Not like it would help them, or me, anyways.
7. Same table. Between snack and leaving, I only played a couple hours, but it was a good/interesting table, I guess.
THE HAND - Limpity, limp, limp to me. I make it 10 in MP with KK. I like KK, if you didn’t know. AKgigglelady calls on button, utg limper calls, and we see the flop 3 ways. KQ9 rainbow. Check, I bet 20, lady calls, dude calls. Ok, I don’t like the vibe when he called. He’s strong. Turn is nothing, but it adds a spade draw. He checks. I bet 35. Lady thinkthinks and calls, he insta pushes for like 175. I hold my hand up, flick it, and muck. Lady thinkthinks some more while the guy with the immaculate, but small chip stack next to me has his eyes bugged out and asks me what I folded. I say top set, quietly. Lady folds, he doesn’t show.
Guy to my left can’t believe I folded. I guarantee him the dude had JT. Guy two to my left agrees, but says wow. Asia Man thought he probably had AQ. Yeah, that makes sense. After thinking about it more, I may have been too quick to fold. I guess he could have had 99, QQ, or KQ, all of which I clearly crush. And, the only hand that beats me is JT. But, his “range” was so overwhelmingly JT that I still think I was right. Just how sure do I need to be (or what kind of margin of error could I allow) before making the fold bad? It’s funny. Gabe Thaler was on cash plays saying he doesn’t want to play in games where he has to fold sets. I agree. But, it wasn’t really a tough fold. And, I’ll be honest, if he had shown KQ it wouldn’t have hurt nearly as bad as if I called and he showed JT. I don’t know (common theme, huh?).
We leave a short time later to come home for dinner, then head back out for more POKER. I hadn’t ever been to Wynn, so we go, despite the fact that I know it’s a 1/3 game with $3 chips. I don’t feel comfortable in the room, at my table, with the dealers, with my opponents, and definitely not with the $3 chips. I’m off. I donk about 60, manage to get back to exactly even, and get the hell out of there. Tom plays for a while longer, then we head to the Mirage.
8. I like the Mirage.
We quickly get into two different 1/2 games, although Tom did get to watch my table for a couple hands before being called. There’s a guy (I’m in the 4, he’s in the 6) two to my left who’s a douchebag. I’m not just saying he’s a douche for fun. Total funking douchetastic fuckhead. I can barely stand to be at the table with him. He slowrolls a kid, after making a donktastic call and runner-runnering a four flush with the three in his hand. He has a rack on the table (about the fourth dealer in, he’s instructed about taking it off, which he pretends not to understand). Huh? I can’t have a rack on the table? Huh? I can’t take money off the table? Huh? I bet two into a pot of 30. I hold my cards in the air for the people around me to look at. I make stupid comments constantly. Really stupid comments, most of which don’t even make sense. But, I make them loudly. GRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. I hate this douche all over again.
So, anyways, I bide my time. I’m not getting into a hand with douchefuck without the goods, because he’s an aggressive douch.
THE HANDS - I get AK and limp. He makes it 6. Bunch of callers. Flop KJ4. I bet 26 (he liked to bet x6, so I wanted to keep him comfortable, without the option of checking behind). He says 36. Huh? It’s 26? I call. HU to the turn. It’s a J. That sucks. I check. He bets 50. I insta call. River 4. That sucks. I check. He thinks and eventually checks. At this point, I two somethings I never do. I do the “you flip your hand first” douchedance. I eventually show, but tell the dealer I want to see his cards. Huh? You ain’t seeing my cards. In the muck. Dealer turns them over. Dealer explains that I can see them. Good guy in the 9 explains, correctly, that I’m allowed to see them but it’s bad etiquette to ask. I’m pissed that I’m on monkeytilt, even with his chips. An hour or so later, I get QQ. Nice kid from the NE area (poker fanboy who also like my Sox hat) raises to 12. I call, douche calls, one more caller. Flop is eight high, no flush possible, no straight possible. I bet 25. Douche calls, NE kid and other caller get out of the way. Turn is a K. I check, he bets 50, I call. River is a 9. I check. He bets 100. I call. He shows AT, and I win.
Game breaks shortly thereafter because doucheman has given away over 700 since I got there, and is now pretty much felted. I feel better.
Home again for a few hours sleep before hitting up the Nugget. Floor guy sucks ass. My first bad experience at the Nugget. We leave. Zero cash games at Binion’s. No surprise.
9. We get back in the car and go to the Venetian.
I played so good yesterday. Tom did, too, but was quite unlucky. Anyways, it’s getting late, I should lock up the win, whatever. Man, I was playing good (’well’, I know, would be correct grammar, but it’s poker; we talk bad [ly, haha]).
THE HAND - I get KQ in late position and just limp. Flop comes KJ8. Checks to me, I bet 10. Tom calls, lady calls. Turn is a 9. Bad card. Check check to me, ok, I bet. I clearly still have the best of it after all. Tom folds (later said he had T9). She calls. River is an 8. She bets 50. Huh? Ok, stop and think. QT makes sense. An 8 is possible. AK is possible. A boat is possible, but would be weird. I don’t really think about all this at the time, I don’t think. But, the bet just seemed weird. I ask her what she has, and she says pay 50 and I’ll show. I smile and say, so you won’t show if I fold. I then ask if she’ll show if I fold. She says, yes, I’ll show. I say damn, you’re supposed to say no so I have to call, knowing I’m now going to call if she doesn’t say anything else. I count it out, and call. She says it’s mine, I flip, she nods, says she missed her flush, and mucks. I win.
I will say that I love this question. If you ask if they’ll show if you fold, you should probably fold when they say no and call when they say yes. This question alone has won me two big pots in the last month. You do have to be careful, as Tom pointed out when I explained it to him. Some people, especially those you’ve built up a rapport with, want to be liked and avoid conflict, and will show you a winner if you ask them this question. But, then, if you’re a winning player, you’ll be able to pretty easily assess which is which.
Ok, I debated about how to do this. What I’ve decided is to go best pick/worst pick per round based on ADP. I’ll try not to go always go with the highest rated. I’m getting my ADP info from fantasyfootballcalculator, which is a good place to do mocks (although I dislike my first two teams despite mocking obsessively). I’m basing it on a 12 team/15 round draft.
1st Round
Worst - Not much to complain about here. I’ll go SJax, despite my man crush, because I just don’t think STL is going to be that good this year. Bad OL and playing from behind are not good for your RB1.
Best - Marshawn Lynch. I also like Gore quite a bit, but basically, if you can get a stud RB that’s not in a RBBC at the end of the first, you’re doing well.
2nd round
Worst - Peyton Manning. Unless you get Tom Brady in the 2nd, you should wait to take a QB. I have both Romo and Brees ahead of Peyton, although I do still have him as a top tier QB. I’m not dissing Peyton, but the value isn’t there at the top of the 2nd.
Best - Ryan Grant. I’m biased. I like Notre Dame. I like Green Bay RB. But, this is another instance where a non-RBBC RB is available after he should be. If you’re lucky enough to get a top RB early in the first and have Grant sitting there when it gets back to you, you’re set.
3rd round
Worst - Lots of bad picks made here that will ruin your year. But, I’ll go with good ol’ ocho cinco. A labrum is a difficult injury to recover from. The Bengals will be bad, he will pout, he will hurt all year. Just let someone else have that problem.
Best - Lots of really good picks here, too, that will be the difference for you. I’ll go with the homer pick of Welker. I was really high on Thomas Jones early, but I’m starting to think Washington is going to steal a lot of downs/carries/TDs. I usually like to stock up on underrated WR that are the number one option for their team, but even as a second option in NE, Welker can be your WR1, especially in a PPR league, obviously.
4th round
Worst - There are three RB here that may not get enough carries to justify their spot here. I’ll take Ronnie Brown as the worst of the bunch. Hang on to him in a keeper league, but wait until next year to try to steal him (he should slip some this year and be good to go in ‘09).
Best - Darren McFadden. Call it AD syndrome. Rookies really shouldn’t go this high. But, you kicked yourself for not taking AD last year, despite knowing he was going to do well. Snap up DMAC here, and forgo the regrets. OAK had a good ypc last year, no matter who was back there. They’re going to feature McFadden this year.
5th round
Worst - Selvin Young. He will have some great games this year, and some almost 0 output games. That’s life as a RB with Shanahan. Save yourself the headache. Hopefully, you’ve got a couple RB by now, and can get value for bye weeks/injuries later.
Best - Some good WR here. I’ll go with Cotchery, who seems to have passed up Coles as the #1 WR for the J-E-T-S. Unlike some, I like the addition of Favre. I think the Jets made themselves a playoff team, and I think Cotchery breaks out this year.
6th round
Worst - Julius Jones. He sucks.
Best - Ok, here’s where my love for Chambers comes through. When he was freed from MIA last year, he did well for the Chargers. With an offseason under his belt, he should do better. Lots of options out there, but Rivers seems to be looking for Chambers first. We’ll see. If you still need a RB, I like the rookie Kevin Smith here.
7th round
Worst - Chester Taylor. It’s just too damn early to take a backup RB/handcuff. Even if you know AD is going down at some point this year, just wait. Too much value given up by doing it here.
Best - Shockey. Not often will I go TE before QB, but Shockey will be a top TE this year. Let other people spend a 5 or 6 on Gates and Witten (who are both very good). You get the same value here, however, and look like a genius. Don’t take him if you got Brees somehow.
8th round
Worst - I’ll go Donte Stallworth here. The CLE QBs aren’t Tom Brady. Don’t take a WR4 here, anyways.
Best - Waiting this long for a QB is the right move, but it sucks. You get a bunch of JAGs that you don’t know how to separate. I’m going to reverse course here and say go with Eli. His confidence is good, their defense is going to be hurting, and he’s got weapons. Obviously, without one of the top 4, you’re going to have to have 2 good QBs, but Eli is actually ok as QB1 now.
9th round
Worst - I’ll go Ahman Green. He’s not Shaun Alexander done, but he’s getting there.
Best - I’ll go Ray Rice. Unlike the 7th, it’s time to start thinking about good RB backup options. McGahee is hurt, generally fragile, and even if he’s totally healthy, he’s not a workhorse. Ray Rice will get looks and touches if you need him to cover a bye, and if he gets to start, watch out.
10th round
Worst - Chris Brown. Let’s just go two HOU RB in a row. That situation is a mess. I think they’ll eventually go young, probably with Slaton, but I’m just not messing with any of the HOU RBs this year, at least to start.
Best - Philip Rivers. Ok, I don’t usually like taking a QB when I have his top WR, but I think Rivers finally has that big, consistent year this year. LOL @ me.
11th round
Worst - Ok, well, um, I don’t hate anyone that ffc has going in the 11th. I’ll say PIT D, just because you can still wait and get a good D. You’ll probably end up switching anyways.
Best - Go with Hester or Ginn if you get return yards, but I’ll go with Sidney Rice. I know I’m in the minority in believing in Tarvaris, but I do. Berrian will probably have better numbers, but Rice should be consistently ok, and sneak in a couple of big games, which is exactly what you want from your WR4.
12th round
Worst - Cadillac Williams. Really? Is someone out there expecting him to play this year?
Best - Pierre Thomas? Who? Ok, I’m reaching, but this kid is good. You’ll probably end up churning him for bye week guys at K/TE/D, but if Deuce McAllister goes down and/or Sean Payton just decides to give this guy a load, he’ll put up numbers.
13th round
Worst - Josh Brown. Again, mostly just because STL sucks. Just wait until 15 to take your kicker.
Best - Usually, I’d go 5 WR/5 RB. But, grab Maurice Morris. As mentioned above, Julius Jones sucks. Take Morris. Even if Lynch, Grant, and DMac all pan out, you’ll have great trade bait.
14th round
Worst - Michael Bush. I think this guy could have been, and maybe will be in the future, a top NFL RB. But, behind Fargas and McFadden, and them now looking at him as a FB, he’s just not worth taking.
Best - If you still need a backup QB, Garcia and Ryan are good value (as well as my boy Tarvaris). But, it’s time for me to recommend K and D. I’ll take the Philly D. With their attacking style and the addition of Asante, they should be decent.
15th round
Worst and Best - There are four kickers listed on ffc for the 15th round. That’s their whole 15th round. Only four guys average out to 15th round. There’s no worst. There’s not really a best. Just take one.
A few years ago, some members from the forums started the PDC (Poker Dork Club). We met and talked strategy. We played online and live on a shared bankroll, and we had some good times. We never had more than 8 members at a time, but I think we went through 10 total members. We were down to 4 when I announced my move. It was decided not to continue, so I quit, and the three remaining members (Rob, Chris, and Tom) decided to use the remaining funds to come visit me in Vegas. It was a good week.
I enjoyed seeing all the guys again. And, pokerwise, I won in 7 of 9 sessions (with one loss of 12 dollars and one breakeven). Overall, plus over a grand uptick. I’m happy.
I just don’t have time right now. My plan will be to publish all three articles next week, probably on the 26th, 27th, and 28th.
WCOOP stands for World Championship of Online Poker. It’s an annual (as opposed to monthly, like FTOPS) tourney hosted on PokerStars. I don’t know if I played in the Razz event a couple years ago, or not. I don’t think so. Off the top of my head, I have never played a WCOOP event.
Generally, I think backing agreements are kinda silly. Especially, short-term backing agreements. That said, I am fairly certain that my playing in three of the events would have positive expected value. The three events are the $215 2-7 Triple Draw tourney on September 6, the $320 8-game tourney on September 8, and the $215 Razz tourney on September 9. If you agree with me, and would like a piece of my action, let me know. I plan to play in these three tournaments with or without backing, so the amount of the piece and what you get for that price is negotiable.
I was a virgin in 2005. I wasn’t on the list pre-BARGE, so I didn’t know of any virgin status or class or activities, but my impression after the fact was that there wasn’t much. I found the group to be clique-y, but also open, and I had a great time.
I came back in 2006. I found the group to be clique-y, but also open, and I had a great time. I started to realize that a lot of it was me being “shy” or not throwing myself into the mix.
I skipped 2007. I missed being there, but it was right for me at the time to stay home.
I moved to Vegas Memorial Day weekend this year, so there was no way I was going to miss 2008. I had a great time, felt extremely comfortable, and enjoyed getting to know many BARGErs better. I also regret not spending more time catching up with some old friends (Momborquette (sp?), Rich Bremer, and Jordan Devenport come to mind, but there were numerous others). Someone mentioned in their trip report making a concerted effort to focus on non-poker stuff this year, and I see myself doing that more in the future. I also missed some BARGErs that didn’t come this year (my friends from Dallas, Raider Fan, and Tuscaloosa Johnny come to mind, but again, this list should probably be longer).
I got down to Binion’s in time for the nlhe shootout to HORSE on Tuesday. I played well, and badly, got really lucky - twice, and still only managed to come in 2nd at my table.
I made it to my first Egg and I outing. Met Bart and enjoyed our conversation, mostly about sports betting. I’ve supposedly barred myself until basketball season, but look forward to hopefully picking his brain more and maybe making some real money on hoops this year. Breakfast was awesome. Thanks, Ice.
I played in the lowball tournament. As a guy that plays mostly razz and triple draw online, I felt comfortable playing lowball. I also got some great cards. And, I drank a lot. By the time I got to the final table, I was pretty toasted. But, happy, due to my first cash in three BARGEs. I met Tom Bayes, saw Kubey - who was nice enough to remind me of a couple beats I took at TARGET, talked some (rather mild) shit to Richard Brodie, and proceeded to donk my way out in 5th.
I went to the sushi outing, which is a must for me after going in 2006. Heather and I actually went back to I Love Sushi tonight (the sushi outing was her first BARGE experience). That place is great, the company is great, and I recommend it to everyone. Thanks to Asya.
I ran some errands and “worked” Friday (I am about the worst player in Vegas that is trying to earn a living playing cards).
I got up early Saturday, feeling good. I got to Binion’s, somewhat surprisingly, in time for the first hand (and ran into Randy in time to buy myself back - dumb move). I played okay. I made a couple good moves, overall played a little too tight, and ended up going out in the 60s somewhere when I “had” to push with 78dd. I never really had the chips to contend, but next year - watch out.
After the tourney, I played in some reindeer games, and actually made a little money. I came home to take a quick nap, shower and change, and grab Heather to head back for the Banquet. We enjoyed getting to know the people at our table. Then, Mr. Schneider began his talk. I ate it up. I understand the objections to his content - poker and non, but I enjoyed it. I got more out of it than I did Wil or Phil (although I enjoyed both of their talks). And, Heather mentioned afterwards wanting to talk to him and tell him how funny she thought he was. So, he had at least two people that genuinely joined the ovation afterwards.
I donated half my winnings from the lowball tournament to the players at my lowball table after the banquet, but had a great time doing so and learned a few things in the process.
I received three pics from Rodney while playing lowball, that are now in a nice frame thanks to Heather. I thought doing those pics was the nuts, and made a small donation to the Nevada SPCA after Rodney said a donation to any charity was what he usually mentioned to people that asked. Thanks again, Rodney.
And, obviously thanks to the organizers. Awesome.
Ok, I’m leaving out a ton, but nobody’s still reading anyway. I look foward to next year.
After taking a cashout to cover some expenses, I left myself with a hundred online. I hovered around that level playing a little high (technically, although I don’t worry too much since I would just reload) at TD, I booked a loss that left me with only about fifty left. So, I’ve been dabbling in .1/.25 nlhe. My overall feel is that online nlhe is pretty tough. I’m not multitabling, and I’m not using any tracking software, so I’m not going to make much, but I think I may have been overestimating how tough it is. We’ll see.
Sidenote: As I mentioned on the forum, Stars is adding a bunch of games as the WCOOP comes up, making it very attractive. If I can also get Tilt to start giving me rakeback, and I get some tracking software, I feel pretty good about online being a viable 2nd income (maybe third, details coming if/when I get a job - gasp).
I just wrote about a gazillion fucking words previewing the NFL, and now it’s gone because my goddamn tokens timed out. I don’t even know what the fuck that means. Lesson learned, I guess. Shortened version coming tomorrow. I’m done for now.
I have been convinced, since well before the season started, that this was not to be the Red Sox year. At this point, it looks like our main competition for the wildcard will come from the Central instead of the Yankees. But, I’m starting to get the feeling that if we can sneak in, anything can happen. We’ll see. Man, I do miss my Extra Innings package. Maybe I’ll call Cox and see if they have some special for the last month of the season.