Fantasy Preview
Ok, I debated about how to do this. What I’ve decided is to go best pick/worst pick per round based on ADP. I’ll try not to go always go with the highest rated. I’m getting my ADP info from fantasyfootballcalculator, which is a good place to do mocks (although I dislike my first two teams despite mocking obsessively). I’m basing it on a 12 team/15 round draft.
1st Round
Worst - Not much to complain about here. I’ll go SJax, despite my man crush, because I just don’t think STL is going to be that good this year. Bad OL and playing from behind are not good for your RB1.
Best - Marshawn Lynch. I also like Gore quite a bit, but basically, if you can get a stud RB that’s not in a RBBC at the end of the first, you’re doing well.
2nd round
Worst - Peyton Manning. Unless you get Tom Brady in the 2nd, you should wait to take a QB. I have both Romo and Brees ahead of Peyton, although I do still have him as a top tier QB. I’m not dissing Peyton, but the value isn’t there at the top of the 2nd.
Best - Ryan Grant. I’m biased. I like Notre Dame. I like Green Bay RB. But, this is another instance where a non-RBBC RB is available after he should be. If you’re lucky enough to get a top RB early in the first and have Grant sitting there when it gets back to you, you’re set.
3rd round
Worst - Lots of bad picks made here that will ruin your year. But, I’ll go with good ol’ ocho cinco. A labrum is a difficult injury to recover from. The Bengals will be bad, he will pout, he will hurt all year. Just let someone else have that problem.
Best - Lots of really good picks here, too, that will be the difference for you. I’ll go with the homer pick of Welker. I was really high on Thomas Jones early, but I’m starting to think Washington is going to steal a lot of downs/carries/TDs. I usually like to stock up on underrated WR that are the number one option for their team, but even as a second option in NE, Welker can be your WR1, especially in a PPR league, obviously.
4th round
Worst - There are three RB here that may not get enough carries to justify their spot here. I’ll take Ronnie Brown as the worst of the bunch. Hang on to him in a keeper league, but wait until next year to try to steal him (he should slip some this year and be good to go in ‘09).
Best - Darren McFadden. Call it AD syndrome. Rookies really shouldn’t go this high. But, you kicked yourself for not taking AD last year, despite knowing he was going to do well. Snap up DMAC here, and forgo the regrets. OAK had a good ypc last year, no matter who was back there. They’re going to feature McFadden this year.
5th round
Worst - Selvin Young. He will have some great games this year, and some almost 0 output games. That’s life as a RB with Shanahan. Save yourself the headache. Hopefully, you’ve got a couple RB by now, and can get value for bye weeks/injuries later.
Best - Some good WR here. I’ll go with Cotchery, who seems to have passed up Coles as the #1 WR for the J-E-T-S. Unlike some, I like the addition of Favre. I think the Jets made themselves a playoff team, and I think Cotchery breaks out this year.
6th round
Worst - Julius Jones. He sucks.
Best - Ok, here’s where my love for Chambers comes through. When he was freed from MIA last year, he did well for the Chargers. With an offseason under his belt, he should do better. Lots of options out there, but Rivers seems to be looking for Chambers first. We’ll see. If you still need a RB, I like the rookie Kevin Smith here.
7th round
Worst - Chester Taylor. It’s just too damn early to take a backup RB/handcuff. Even if you know AD is going down at some point this year, just wait. Too much value given up by doing it here.
Best - Shockey. Not often will I go TE before QB, but Shockey will be a top TE this year. Let other people spend a 5 or 6 on Gates and Witten (who are both very good). You get the same value here, however, and look like a genius. Don’t take him if you got Brees somehow.
8th round
Worst - I’ll go Donte Stallworth here. The CLE QBs aren’t Tom Brady. Don’t take a WR4 here, anyways.
Best - Waiting this long for a QB is the right move, but it sucks. You get a bunch of JAGs that you don’t know how to separate. I’m going to reverse course here and say go with Eli. His confidence is good, their defense is going to be hurting, and he’s got weapons. Obviously, without one of the top 4, you’re going to have to have 2 good QBs, but Eli is actually ok as QB1 now.
9th round
Worst - I’ll go Ahman Green. He’s not Shaun Alexander done, but he’s getting there.
Best - I’ll go Ray Rice. Unlike the 7th, it’s time to start thinking about good RB backup options. McGahee is hurt, generally fragile, and even if he’s totally healthy, he’s not a workhorse. Ray Rice will get looks and touches if you need him to cover a bye, and if he gets to start, watch out.
10th round
Worst - Chris Brown. Let’s just go two HOU RB in a row. That situation is a mess. I think they’ll eventually go young, probably with Slaton, but I’m just not messing with any of the HOU RBs this year, at least to start.
Best - Philip Rivers. Ok, I don’t usually like taking a QB when I have his top WR, but I think Rivers finally has that big, consistent year this year. LOL @ me.
11th round
Worst - Ok, well, um, I don’t hate anyone that ffc has going in the 11th. I’ll say PIT D, just because you can still wait and get a good D. You’ll probably end up switching anyways.
Best - Go with Hester or Ginn if you get return yards, but I’ll go with Sidney Rice. I know I’m in the minority in believing in Tarvaris, but I do. Berrian will probably have better numbers, but Rice should be consistently ok, and sneak in a couple of big games, which is exactly what you want from your WR4.
12th round
Worst - Cadillac Williams. Really? Is someone out there expecting him to play this year?
Best - Pierre Thomas? Who? Ok, I’m reaching, but this kid is good. You’ll probably end up churning him for bye week guys at K/TE/D, but if Deuce McAllister goes down and/or Sean Payton just decides to give this guy a load, he’ll put up numbers.
13th round
Worst - Josh Brown. Again, mostly just because STL sucks. Just wait until 15 to take your kicker.
Best - Usually, I’d go 5 WR/5 RB. But, grab Maurice Morris. As mentioned above, Julius Jones sucks. Take Morris. Even if Lynch, Grant, and DMac all pan out, you’ll have great trade bait.
14th round
Worst - Michael Bush. I think this guy could have been, and maybe will be in the future, a top NFL RB. But, behind Fargas and McFadden, and them now looking at him as a FB, he’s just not worth taking.
Best - If you still need a backup QB, Garcia and Ryan are good value (as well as my boy Tarvaris). But, it’s time for me to recommend K and D. I’ll take the Philly D. With their attacking style and the addition of Asante, they should be decent.
15th round
Worst and Best - There are four kickers listed on ffc for the 15th round. That’s their whole 15th round. Only four guys average out to 15th round. There’s no worst. There’s not really a best. Just take one.