thejimsheet

Well, I tried to go Friday night with an open mind.   Bishop Gorman is a private school over on the west side of town that has a good repuation and a four star recruit that has signed with OU, so I thought it would be a good start.

Plano and PESH came on TV  Thursday night, and I DVR’ed it.   I was happy to see it (seems like there’s about 5 HS games on a week, which is crazy, but it was nice to see this one).   It also made me a bit homesick.

Well,  the Bishop Gorman game didn’t help.   Play was awful.   Coaching was HORRENDOUS.   Even the fans were more annoying (mostly because the stadium was small enough I had to sit by some of them.   I have no idea whether this DE will do anything in college, because he had obviously been coached to suck.   Wow.

I’ll probably try to go to one, maybe two, more games out here, but I am tempted to chalk HS football as something I gave up in the move if my next experience(s) is(are) of the same caliber.

UNR +3 @ UNLV

UNM -3 @ NM St.

UTEP +4.5 v. UCF

Duke -7 v. UVa

UNC +7.5 @ Miami

Neb. -7 v. VT

Wisc. -6 @ Mich.

BG -3 @ Wyo.

CIN -3.5 v. CLE

NO - 5 v. SF

This game is easy.   And, even “experts” make bad plays.

I watched a td27 video the other day, and one play really stood out, and has bothered me since.

The guy making the video (it’s two guys, but hey) raised predraw on the button and got callers.   To be honest, I don’t remember the exact action.   But, after the first draw, “we” had a T98 low.   Checked to us, we bet, and get two callers.   They both draw two and we’re pat.   Check, check, we bet, they both call again.   Draw one, draw one, and we BREAK our pat Ten to draw to a 98.   Ummmm, what???

Ok, I’m kinda assuming everyone reading this understands the game, so my bad if you don’t.   Ask a question in the comments.

Here was their line of thinking.   We know that a 9 is about 50% against two one card draws, and is often called a favorite.   So, since we have a ten we have to break it as we’re now a dog against two one card draws.   Let me see if I can clearly outline the problems with this line:

-If we do improve, it’s only to a 98, which, while it has value, is not a good hand.

-We open ourselves up to be bluffed.

-We’re a dog to improve.   There are times to stand pat and later break, but this is not one of them.

-If we stay pat again, only “good” hands (minimum is probably 86) will bet into us, and then we just fold.   We never put another bet in the pot.   By breaking, we kinda have to bet for value if we catch a 98 and it’s checked to us, and have to call a bet lots of times as a bluffcatcher.   We’re opening ourselves up to make bad decisions.

-While we’re a dog against two one card draws, we’re not a big dog.   We pick up this pot, without having to put in any more money, a decent % of the time.

Ok, I think that’s it.    I feel like this is obvious, and yet I feel I’m not communicating it clearly.   Let me know.

I usually write down a few more college games than I end up picking.   On here, I’ve noted a couple that were close to making the cut.   I just wrote down 23 games that I like upon my initial look-see for college this week.   Twenty fucking three.   Wow.   Load up against me, kids.

Things are good.   I’m job hunting and applying for my teacher’s license.   I went to a poker meeting today - one of the better ones I’ve been to.   Heather and I are doing well.   I’m reading a non-poker book, which is different for me; I think it’s my first since the move.

thejimsheet went 1-4 in college last weekend and is now down to 7-8.   It may be too late to go oppo in college.   But, in the pros, I went 4-1 for the third straight week for an overall record of 12-3.   Plenty of time to jump on the oppo bandwagon there.

I, like so many other everyday fans, tend to be a favorites bettor.   I battle each week, telling myself I need to get away from it and then telling myself that in and of itself it’s not a bad thing.   Anyways, I’m favorite heavy again this week.   We’ll see how it works out.

UNC - 3 v. VT

Utah -9 @ AFA

Oregon - 10 v. Boise St.

Ball St. +3 @ IU

ECU - 7 @ NC St.

CIN +13.5 @ NYG

WAS -3 v. ARI

CHI -3 v. TB

PHI -3 v. PIT

JAX +5.5 @ IND

Good luck, kids.

I don’t think anyone that has seen Tarvaris Jackson play this year would tell you he was a good QB.   He has really disappointed me.   I made a bad line a couple months back and bet that he would have a rating of 85.0 or better.   I thought it was a bad line because the guy I made the bet against would have bet at a lower number.   But, now I know it was also a bad line because the dude sucks.   By the way, Vishante Shiancoe is even worse.  LOL.

But, the bet has also caused me to take a closer look at the QB ratings.   I knew it was a silly system, but it’s worse than I thought.   The whole fucking equation sucks balls, and I don’t understand how it has withstood the test of time.  And, college football has a whole different, totally fucked up, equation.

Nine days ago, I made a deposit.   Already, it has had a negative effect on me.   So, despite almost tripling up, I submitted a withdrawl request tonight.   By the time I get the check, I should be just about ready to re-deposit for bball season.   Somehow, I don’t get as emotionally tied up in bball.

For those (probably everyone) not keeping track, thejimsheet went 2-3 in college and 4-1 in the pros (would have been 5-0 if Romeo Crennel had a fucking brain) this week.  That brings me to 6-4 in college and 8-2 in the pros for the season.   A combined 70% is pretty good, but utterly unsustainable, even with the increased rationality not having money to bet brings.   So, if you haven’t already, you should probably start playing opposite thejimsheet soon.

I’m interested in too many games, way too many favorites (including 4 on the road in college, jeesh).   Good luck.

Duke - 2 v. Navy

Wisconsin - 2.5 @ Fresno State

Penn. St. - 27 @ Syracuse

Cal - 14.5 @ Maryland

Arizona - 10.5 @ UNM

ASU - 23.5 v. UNLV

OAK +3.5 @ KC

TEN +1 @ CIN

TB -7 v. ATL

NE +1 @ NYJ

PIT -6.5 @ CLE

After a good end of August/beginning of September, I’ve had two losing sessions in a row.   I play good and run bad for the most part, but it shouldn’t affect me after having like 7 wins in row.  Alas, it does.  So, after I end last night by making one of the worst plays/bets I’ve made (since one of the early thirty mans against Kolby), I decide to “re-focus”.   I kill myself at the gym last night, go for a long swim today, get my hair cut, have some Fazoli’s, and I’m ready to go.

Ok, the hands:

1.  I have JJ in MP, raise to 12.   I haven’t been at the table long, but this is my first preflop raise.  I get 3 callers, and we see the flop of J86 all hearts four ways.   I already know I’m betting any flop where I have a set or overpair, so when it’s checked to me, I bet 25.   The two guys behind me fold and the SB (old guy who plays at the Venetian regularly, but is not a rock) calls.   Turn is the 7d.   He goes all-in for about 130.   Ok, that’s interesting.   He clearly doesn’t have a big flush, because he’d likely checkraise me here.   I think his most likely hands are a small flush (waiting until the turn to see if another Heart comes) or some kind of combo draw semi-bluff.   He could have two pair or a big jack.   I call.   He flips over 9Tcc for the turned gutshot.   The river pairs the 7 and I win.   I didn’t see that coming.   I may not have played the hand perfectly, but I don’t like his line at all.   Whatever, I win.

2.  Asian chic comes to the table and is clearly a 2/5 player.   She doesn’t like only buying in for 300, she puts constant pressure on everyone.   But, she’s pretty good.   She’s playing a very volatile style and is about even when I get to limp for 2 with QJcc.   Flop comes K83 all clubs.  YAY.  Early position dude bets 10, I call, she calls.   Turn Ts, EP bets 25, I raise to 75, she calls, he folds.   I think her most likely hand at this point is the Ac.   River is the Tc, completing her possible draw and pairing the board.   I check, she bets 100, and I call.   Huh?   Ok, I tanked a bit, but not enough.   What can I beat besides a bluff here?   A 9 high flush?   Rivered trip Tens somehow?   It’s not a horrible call, because the pot is laying me 3-1, and she could easily be trying to take it away from me with a decent K, or three pairs that she now knows she has to turn into a bluff (she was VERY active).   But, it’s not a good call.   Sure enough, she flips over A4cc for the flopped nuts, and I could have lost a lot more.   But, obviously, I could have lost 100 less, too.

3.   I’m now hovering, treading water as the game gets really good.   Everyone is deep.   Action is good.   I limp for 2 with A3hh.   Everyone limps.   BB raises to 20.   I call, and my instinct is right when we get 4 more callers but no raisers.   I can fold here, and often do, but the table is good.   I know I’m open shoving any 2 pair of better hand (AAx is scary, but…) or any kind of big draw.   When the flop comes 256 with two hearts, I’m committed.  BB bets 60, juicing it up a bit, I push for 221, everyone folds to him.   Now, you can make a case that my fold equity here is minimal, but it’s not zero.   I saw him make a ridiculous laydown (pot odds wise) earlier, and he tanked here for awhile before calling with two black Kings.   Ok, 15 outs twice.   Brick brick and IGHN.

Make that 3 losing sessions in a row.

I’ll be back tomorrow with some general thoughts and my picks for this weekend.