thejimsheet

A lot will figure itself out in the next couple weeks.   For now, here are my rankings and some reasoning:

1. Alabama - In my mind, this is the only team that will have a legit beef if they run the table and get slighted, but that won’t happen, so no worries.

2. Florida - People are starting to see that Ol’ Miss is for real, and UF is playing out of their heads right now.    Will be interesting to see how they play against FSU on Saturday.
3. USC - Another team whose loss isn’t so bad, and another team that is very good.

4. UT - I’m not keeping them ahead of OU because they beat OU.   By now, my fictional readers know that I don’t bother with that.   But, if UT and OU were playing on a neutral field in a bowl game, I’d take UT, although it’d be close (and a game I’d love to watch).

5. OU - Wow.   What a great game they played Saturday.   Very impressive.   Their game against Okie State is one of only a few that is must-see this week.

6. Texas Tech - Anyone who watched Tech play all year couldn’t have been too surprised by Saturday.   And, anyone saying that Tech is now obviously NOT a top 10 team is kneejerking.

7. Boise State - Utah will go to the BCS, but I’d take Boise in a neutral field battle.

8. Mizzou - Can they upset the South champ (whothefuckever that will be)?

9. OSU

10. OSU

11. OSU - in one of the few comments, I got positive reinforcement for my ambiguity surrounding these three teams last week, so here they are again.   Two have big games this week, and the other is done until the bowl.   How dumb is it that the Big Ten doesn’t adjust their schedule?

12. Penn State

13. Oregon - everyone seems to be taking for granted that they’ll lose in Corvallis, but I’d be surprised if the line is more than a FG, and Oregon would be favored if it was in Eugene.

14. Utah - A good win on Saturday.   You have to give them credit, but I just don’t think they’re “that” good.

15. Cincy - Another team with a good win on Saturday.   I expected Pitt to beat them.   If they can hang on to Kelly for one more year, which seems less and less likely, they’ll be in the National Championship hunt next year.

16. Georgia - They got killed by UF and for one half by ‘Bama, but they’ve won the rest and would beat a lot of teams on a neutral field.   I expect them to look good in whatever bowl they go to.

17. Georgia Tech - Paul Johnson is a damn good coach, apparently.   The UGa./GT game is one I’ll try to watch, too.

18. TCU - They “should” have beat Utah and they lost to OU.

19. FSU - Wow.  I saw some of this game on replay.   Like all ACC teams, they’re up and down, but when they’re on, they look good.   I don’t expect them to give UF a real challenge, but wouldn’t it be cool if they did?

20. WVU - Pat White is good.

21. Ball State - I was a little surprised they beat CMU.   A win tomorrow against WMU and they’re “perfect” despite losing their star WR early in the year.  For me, that game is another must-see.

22. Northwestern - At this point in the rankings, I could say that the coach of each team is doing a good job.   Pat Fitzgerald has to be on that list, which actually surprises me.   We’ll see if he can keep it up year-to-year.

23. Michigan State

24. WMU

25. BC - they edge out the C-USA teams since I think they’d win.

Must-see games this week:  WMU/Ball State tomorrow at 4PT, OU/Ok. St. Saturday time TBA, and UO/OSU Saturday at 4PT

Other interesting games: TAMU/UT Thursday 5PT, WVU/Pitt Friday 9amPT, and Saturday (GT/UGa., UF/FSU, Auburn/Bama, and maybe five minutes of ND/USC)

I am very thankful for much in my life.   Heather and my family are visiting this week, so I probably won’t be around to post much (and likely won’t be playing much poker or doing much sports research).   I’ll post my new top 25 in a minute, but then probably won’t post again until next Monday.

Currently, thejimsheet is only 39-43 in college football, and has only started 5-6 in college basketball.   But, we are 25-13 so far in the NFL and we’re off to a 7-3 start in the NBA.

Happy Thanksgiving to all (any) of you reading.

None.

MP raise to 10.   Button calls.   I am sb, see AA.   I smooth call.   Flop J56.  I check.   MP bets 15.   He’s getting short.   Huge stack on button calls.   I c/r to 45 hoping to isolate small stack.    He calls.   Button calls.    Turn Ad (putting two diamonds out there).   I check.   MP checks.   Button bets 55.   I c/r all-in for like 220.   MP calls his last 23 or so.   Button almost insta-folds.   I show, MP drawing dead with TT.   I win a nice pot.

But, for the first time in awhile, I basically jizzed all over myself.   I waited for awhile after his bet, but after the Ace came, I was so tunnel focused on getting the money in that I didn’t stop to think about the best way to do that.  Here’s the thing.   Button has to have a hand to call a c/r on the flop.   He’s a good, thinking player.   His range probably includes all pairs 5+ (obv. including sets), AJ, maybe weaker Jacks (if we are including 77-TT, we pretty much have to consider all Jacks he would call a raise with pre), 56, and 78.    That’s about it.    He later claimed that he folded AJ, which I believed, and said I should have smooth-called the turn.  This is possible, and obviously the better action given a check.   He is so unlikely to bet there on a draw, because he has to show up with a hand, that I should not be fearing any card.   But, I think my real mistake was not betting out the turn (45 again or somesuch).   Given his exact hand, this would have been the best course, but I think it’s probably the best course for almost his whole range.    MP still calls all-in (he obviously played the hand badly, so I won’t disect his play).   Then, button is pretty much forced to raise and commit himself the vast majority of his range that he would put any more money in the pot with anyway.

Play and learn.

I played a long session at the Venetian last night, but one hand sticks out.

Middle aged guy raises to 12 utg+1.   The only hand I had seen him play was QJ on a flop of 9TK where he got it in against a set.   I have 99.   I call.   Three other callers.   Flop Q98 with two diamonds.   He bets 35.   I raise to 105.   He stacks off for 173 more (so it’s 173 to win about 420, or almost 2.5:1).   I thought I was beat.   I asked him if he had QQ.   He told me he was taking my chips if I called.   I said ok, but do you have QQ?   He said he had a straight.   I said ok.   I said I don’t think I can fold.   I ended up calling.   He shows QQ and somehow I miss my one out.

I think this is a hand I can get away from.   I also think a raise to about 85 would have achieved the same result.   Of course, I could just be fixated because I lost.   I think a lot of players just get it in there and don’t look back.   But, realistically, what’s his range?   And, how heavily does it need to be weighted to QQ (and JT) for me to correctly fold given the action?   Interesting.

MIA -5.5 v. IND

Pitt +6 @ Cincy

BC +2 @ Wake

UW -7 @ Wazzu

Houston -17 v. UTEP

Iowa -6 @ Minn.

Oregon State +2.5 @ Zona

L’ville +7 v. WVU

LSU -3.5 v. Miss.

No NFL yet.

No picks.

Ok, to set up the hand, I kinda need to talk about the whole session.

I hadn’t played at Bally’s since moving here, despite Heather working there.   The last time I had played there was with Dave a few years ago, when I twice got it in with a big advantage only to lose the pot.   But, I was dressed a little scummy yesterday, and wanted to go to a smaller room (silly, but that’s me).   So, I thought I’d try Bally’s and if it wasn’t going, I could walk down to Flamingo and/or Harrah’s.   All three are high on rake, but seem to make up for it.

I knew pretty early that I had a good table.   There was one other local grinder there, but he actually packed up and left before I got too involved.   Early on I tried to bully a little, which was the totally wrong tactic on this table.   So, down a little, I reset.   No c-bets unless connected.   No trapping.   Just play.   And, man the chips were moving around.   I get frustrated seeing people play badly and win big pots.   But, I just had to keep telling myself that my time would come.   And, if I wasted any more chips, it wouldn’t matter when it did.

At one point, I have QQ in the BB.   It limps to the sb, who makes it 20.   I don’t want to scare off anyone, and yes, people were limping and then smooth-calling 20.   Everyone folds, and the flop comes K62.   Ok, good flop, he checks.  He was a pretty aggressive player, so checking was a little weird, but it didn’t really set off an alarm for me.   I check.  Turn is a 7.   There is no flush.   He bets 20 and leaves 65 behind.   If I’m ahead, I should move all-in.   If I’m behind, it’s time to fold.   If I’m in doubt, I should probably err on the side of caution.   But, I’m not in much doubt, because he had mentioned being at the table for a long time.   I thought he wanted to give his money away.   He was steepling his index fingers and touching his nose.   I go all-in, he calls, river comes, I show, he mucks.   Sweet.   I’m back over 300 now (in for 400).

I then basically tread water for a while.   A lady in the game is playing and hitting everything.   A guy on the end asks every time it comes to him how much it is, even if the person directly to his right has put out the bet (and, not surprisingly, he calls EVERYTHING - and happens to be down about 600).   A new old guy with a blinky nametag sits down.   He’s in for the convention.   A young Aggie sits next to me.    The crazy old Asian next to me constantly talks about hitting a diamond royal since it’s the current highest high hand jackpot.

I’m sitting on about 240 when a hand comes up.  I’m in the cutoff with Ad6d.   It limps around.   I happily limp, the crazy old Asian limps on the button, and we see a flop 7 ways.   Jd7c5d.   Nut flush draw and backdoor straight draw, plus the Ace.   A decent flop for me.   I might even go crazy.   NO!   No semi-bluffing this table.    So, it checks to the old conventioneer who makes it 10.   Aggie Sam makes it 20.   This is dangerous, because it reopens the betting to the blinky guy.   But, I KNOW he’s not reraising here.   He has one pair, and it doesn’t have to be top pair.   I call.   Old Asian calls.   Lady calls.    Blinky convention guy calls.    Now, we have a pot.   Qh on the turn.   Check check to good ol’ Sam.   He’s a good, but not great player.   Probably the second best on this particular table (of course, I’m the best - duh).    Sam bets 45.   That’s a lot, but less than half-pot.   If my Ace is live, I’m clearly getting the right odds.   If someone else calls, I’m getting the right odds.   He’s acting like the Q didn’t scare him, but only 45?   I ask how much he has left.   He fumbles, shows me, counts it down.   125 more.   I still don’t like the push here, so I call.   We’ll see what happens.   Well, here’s what happens.   All three opponents also call.   WTF?   Now, there’s over 300 in the pot.   The river is the 9d.   Ummm, yeah, that’s a scare card, but hey, I have the fucking NUTS!   I love rivering the nuts in a huge, multi-way pot.   Check, check, Sam checks.    I think (not Hollywood, think).   I push.   Crazy old Asian wants a count.   175.   He calls.   Fold fold and Sam thinks.   He claims to lay down a flopped set of Jacks.   I believe him, but bet more on the turn, son.    I win and all of a sudden have gone from like 240 to 680 in one hand.   Wheeeeeeeeeeeee.

Ok, all that brings me to the hand that caused me to post.   I have QsJs in late position, and limp.   Flop AsTs5h.   Royal draw.   Thank you.   Now, with these chips, and position, I can semi-bluff.   People are now scared of me.   Checks to me, I bet 10 (bets of 12 and 16, and other numbers not divisible by 5, had been getting too much respect).   Button calls, lady calls from the blinds.   We see the turn 8s three ways.   Lady checks, I bet 20, button folds.   She calls.   River is the Ah.   She bets 25.   Ok, so here is where it gets interesting.    This lady had been on a sick heater.   The guy next to me had gone all-in preflop with QQ for 62 and gotten two callers, one of which was her with KTo which hit the KTT board nicely.   That is not to say she’s dumb.   She was smart.    And, she had played before.   But, she wasn’t a poker player.   She was just having fun.   So, I know she has a good hand here, but her range is kinda wide.   Obviously, trip Aces is a REALLY good possibility.   She was not a trapper.   So, her check/calling with two pair on the flop or turn is unlikely.    Same with a set.   Same with the K flush.   I reason it out that she does not have a boat.    I, a lot of times, will just call here.   She has a monster stack, and I just came in to these chips.    But, I think that’s bad.   If I feel I’m ahead, and feel she’ll call, a raise is right.   I rethink it, and raise to 125 (100 to her).   She calls, and actually turned a smaller flush.    Ok, that makes some sense.   Woohoo.   Way to go, Jim.   That’s 100 extra you got there.   Way to go.   Nice bet on the come, good job getting there.    And, nice value raise on the river.   You are a poker god.

But, wait.   You knew this post had this title for some reason.   She had over 400 after betting the 25 on the river.   She only has to call about 20% of the time to make an all-in more correct.   And, obviously, if she’ll call 200 more greater than 1/2 the time, then I should have raised to 225.   My logic was correct.    She has a real hand, but I’m ahead.   And, she’s going to call with most of that range, no matter what I bet, because she doesn’t think in terms of the price the pot is laying.   If she thinks she is ahead, she calls.    That’s what she does.   Now, obviously she calls less the more I bet, because she thinks she’s ahead less often.    But, I don’t doubt that I had greater EV with bigger river raises than with the one I made.   I am glad I got value, but I have to keep playing better.

After that, I talked to Sam for awhile about what bad experiences he had in Lubbock as an Aggie fan.   I fucking hate that.   Oh, well.   When the lady decided to leave, I decided the table just lost some value, so I left, too.

Later.

BOS -6.5 v. DET

LAL -5 @ PHX