thejimsheet

TOR -3.5 v. IND

ATL +8 @ SA

SDS +6 @ Arizona

CU -2 v. CSU

Gonzaga -4 @ Wazzu

I was thinking about skipping this, but demand has been insane.   I went a little more in depth this week in doing my rankings (I didn’t pre-rule out any team with less than five losses), and then had a case of give up around #15 when all the mediocrity blends together.   For the most part, I went by who I would pick on a neutral field, NOT how I think they’ll look after their bowl games.
Without further ado:

1. Florida - Alabama gave them a fight, and they answered.   And, now, the rest of the country is seeing how not so bad their “bad” loss was.

2. UT - Win ‘em all or don’t bitch.    That said, I think they’re basically 1a with UF.

3. USC - This was close - great D or great O?   I’ll take D.

4. OU - Bradford is the real deal, and I think it’s cool he’ll get the Heisman.   But, unless Stoops works some miracles, I don’t see them being able to hang with Florida.

5.  Alabama - They’re hurt some by me seeing them lose, but they’re a great, great team.

6.  Texas Tech - This is where the dropoff begins, but I’m pretty proud of my Red Raiders this year.

7. Boise State - I’m telling you, this team could compete in any conference in the country.   Later on, you’ll see that I kept Utah above TCU, but I think TCU and Boise are really the class of the non-BCS this year.
8. Oregon -  Wow.

9. Penn State - They may make a statement against an “uninspired” USC in the Rose, but I kinda doubt it.

10. Oklahoma State - Three losses, all to top 6 teams in their DIVISION.

11. Ohio State - I actually haven’t seen them play since Penn State.   I’m looking forward to the Fiesta.

12. Oregon State - Oregon rolled, but the Beavers are still pretty good.

13. Cincy - You’ve heard me brag on them enough.

14. Ole Miss - They scare the crap out of me in the Cotton.

15. Utah - I think they’ll be “exposed” in the Sugar.

16. TCU -  The Poinsettia is definitely a must-see bowl.

17. Pitt - LeSean McCoy.   Remember that name.

18. GT

19. Iowa - 4 losses, but never out of a game.  Beat Penn State.

20. Mizzou

21. UGa.

22. VT

23. BYU

24. NW - Didn’t fade like I thought they would.

25. Ball State - obviously, the ball bounced Buffalo’s way all night, and they played well, but Ball State was no “fluke”.

I like the way I played these.

AA in EP, I raise to 12, get two callers.   Flop T94 rainbow.   I bet 30, get one caller.   Turn is another T.  I check.   He (an older guy who wasn’t as good as he thought, and tried to outplay everyone) bet 50.   I call and dark check the river.   It’s a 6 or an 8, he checks and shows 77 and I win.   I started the hand with less than 300.   So, on the turn, his bet pretty much commits me to the pot.   So, many people would go all-in.   But, he is unlikely to call me without a Ten.  I’m turning my AA into napkins.   He can still value bet the river, or even go all-in (he started the hand with me covered) with a lesser hand.   I unhappily call any bet on the river without an additional read.

Late in the night, I had just taken down a pot with KK utg on the previous hand, although I didn’t show.   I did joke about limp/re-raising after folding a bunch, as I had not been an active participant at the table.   In the BB, it limps about 7 ways to me with 88.   I say “I’m going to slowplay this one” and just check.   Flop Q84 rainbow.  sb bets 10 (VERY active young guy).   Gets called three ways.   Turn 2.   He bets 10 again.   I just call again.   Second caller, but girl last to act raises to 25.   sb folds, and I reraise to 125.   Other guy folds, and she asks if I can beat a set.   I say, “No, but I don’t think you have a set.   I have a good hand.”   She calls.   River K, offsuit.   I go all-in for 216.   She acts frustrated.   I tell her “that’s a bad river card for you.”   She calls.   I show her my eights, and she tells the guy next to her what a prick I am as I stack all the chips and then she’s gone.    I think, most of the time, people talking give away too much.   Most people wanting to get called talk.   But, she was a decent player.   Not good, but decent, and capable of laying down a set.   I just wanted to talk enough to stop her from reasoning out, and bring up the possibility of something other than a higher set.

I did mess up a hand early in the night, when I didn’t call a fairly obvious bluff with second pair, but I thought I’d find a better spot.

I will say that the table last night was better than I’d usually expect on a Sunday night.

I will obviously be making NFL picks this week, and will post Saturday night/Sunday morning.

I have no basketball picks for like the third day in a row.

Bowl picks will probably be posted around the 19th.

Ohio State +3.5 @ ND

Miami +2.5 @ UK

Dayton -1.5 @ Akron

WVU -14.5 v. Cleveland St.

USD +4.5 @ SDS

Wazzu -2 v. Baylor

Utah -12 @ Idaho St.

CLE -8.5 @ CHA

DEN -5 @ SAC

OU -16.5 v. Mizzou

BAL -5 v. WAS

NEP -4.5 @ SEA

I like suited one-gappers.   57, 79, 46, you know.   So, I’m in early late position with 8hTh.   I limp.   5 to the flop.  9JQ.   I bet, get raised, one blind calls, I call.   Turn a blank.   Check, I think about betting (which I think I should have) but check, she bets, he folds.   I tank.  I fucking know she has KT, but after like forever I call anyways.   River Ace, I check, she goes all-in, and I finally get away.   I had a good session, but I have to get away from this on the turn.   I have to.

Canisius +4.5 @ Manhattan

LAC +1.5 @ MEM

MIL -4.5 v. CHA

Just two today.

St. Mary’s -2 @ Kent State

UT -6 v. UCLA

Maryland -6 v. Michigan

Michigan State +9.5 v. UNC

FSU +1.5 @ NW

CU -3.5 v. TCU

LAL -8 @ PHI

CHI +4 @ MIL

NO -5 v. PHX