thejimsheet

UNI -7 @ Evansville

Duke -5.5 @ VT

Dayton -2.5 v. Temple

Wyoming -1 @ AFA

Tenn.-Martin -7.5 v. Morehead St.

Portland St. -4.5 @ E. Wash.

No picks today.

I haven’t posted any poker content recently, so I thought I’d break that streak and talk about a couple of hands.

The first one was played by a friend of mine, and apparently will be featured by Bob Ciaffone soon in his cardplayer article.  I’ll wait to talk until after I recap the hand, but think about the hand at each decision point.  We’re on the button with $300 in a 1/2 nlhe cash game.   There is an EP limper and MP limper when it gets to us.  With the idea of varying our play, we raise with A4dd.   Blinds and the EP fold, and the MP comes along, so it’s HU with $35 in the pot.   Flop is Qd7d2h.   MP checks, and we bet $20.  MP raises to $50.  We call.   Turn is 3d.   He checks, we bet $60, he calls.   Pot is now $255 and we’re left with $175 (opponent has us covered).   River is the 7s.   Oppenent bets $100.   We call, and he shows queens full.

Knowing the result, it’s easy to think we misplayed the hand.   Most often, we think much more about our hands like this than hands where we won.    Ok, so the first decision comes preflop.   I’m ok with raising occasionally to mix up your play.   I think, however, a lot of people end up using this too often as an excuse, and become spewy LAGtards.   Gotta love poker lingo.   If you’re raising any two here and know how to play that style or it’s a really tight table where you’ll win the $7 a majority of the time, ok.   Maybe if you’re really just mixing it up, choose some randomizer (like you’ll only raise with A4s and never other Ax hands, or you’ll only raise the first time after the cocktail waitress comes by or something).  I think raising to $10 or $12 is probably better when you do raise, but whatever.   Ok, moving on to the flop.   An argument can be made for checking behind and trying to catch, but I don’t like it.  You have no reason to think your opponent has anything, this is the flop you were looking for, there’s already a decent pot out there, and if you’re going to catch you might as well start building a pot.   I’d bet a little more here, probably $30.  The surprise comes when you get c/r.   This is a weird board for it, and it seems like a really small raise.   This is where the majority of the conversation has to take place.   Q7, Q2, and 72 are pretty unlikely.    He could have a worse flush draw, but we can’t consider that likely, either, although it’s in his range.   He could also be bluffing, which would be a decent play.   But, the majority of his range is good Queens, with sets also possible.   If our Ace outs are live, we’re getting about the right price to peel one off, but if we do this we have to have a plan going forward (we’re done if we don’t hit the turn, we’re pushing all turns, we’ll call again if getting over 3-1 again, whatever) .   But, if our Ace outs are really live, then we’re just less than a coinflip with two cards to come, and we have to have a good amount of fold equity, so it seems like it’s Stove Top time.   This is a close decision, with a lot of people at the meeting the other night feeling strongly about their lines.   When it’s close like this, I usually go with my read.   This time, the math is interesting.   Assuming he calls with all sets and folds all else, he has to have a set almost half the time before pushing becomes worse than folding.   Well, shit.   Back to the read.   I think it’s close enough that I’m not going to prescribe a certain line, because it depends a lot on your style, your goal, etc.   On to the turn; once we hit, and he checks, we either need to check and evaluate on the river or bet more than $60 (I’d lean really heavily to betting something like $90).   Once he calls, and bets when the board pairs on the river, we almost have to make a crying call, but I don’t like it.   Hmmm.

Ok, the second had that really got me thinking this week was from two plus two.   I won’t link the thread, but I will say that going through threads there is a decent practice for anyone who enjoys thinking about the game.   The hand in question is $25/50 nlhe online, full ring.   We’re taking a shot and sitting with $5k on the button.   A few limps, an open from MP to $150, a reraise to $450, then a rere to $1450.   We look down and see QQ.    On the face of it, this doesn’t seem like a hard fold to me, but enough good players were saying this is an insta-shove that it got me thinking.

Ok, enough poker content for awhile.   Maybe if I ever start playing as much as I should, I’d have more.

No nba picks tonight, but I highly recommend watching TNT.   Both games, but especially Cavs @ Rockets, should be good.

College picks:

WV -4.5 @ Cincy

Xavier -3.5 @ St. Joe’s

Utah St. -15 v. Hawaii

Montana +2 @ N. Colorado

I’m really tempted to go against the Rebs tonight, but I won’t.   It’s not like I don’t have enough picks.   Tonight is going to be a good night.

SAS -1.5 v. POR

ATL +9 @ DEN

VCU -3 @ JM

St. Louis -1 @ St. Bona.

Ok. St. -5 @ CU

UConn +1 @ Marquette

Vandy -5 @ UGa.

Ol’ Miss +6.5 @ Auburn

LAL -7.5 @ OKC

ORL -2 @ CHI

Pitt -8.5 @ Providence

Creighton -6.5 @ Missouri St.

BYU +1 @ SDSU

L’ville -2 @ G’town

I like about 7 games, but I’m going with the top 2.

BOS +2 @ PHX

St. Joe’s -6.5 v. UMass

Wyoming -4.5 v. TCU

TAMU -1.5 @ TTU

OU +1 @ UT

No picks today.