thejimsheet

Saints/Eagles and Jets/Pats, the Loudon race, Sparks/Storm, and the ‘Boys/G-Men tonight.   Don’t count on me to be productive today.

All of us sports fans know what ‘the zone’ is.   When the basket is as big as a lake.   When the pitch looks like a fat grapefruit in slow motion.    Everything is just clear.   This state of being exists for poker players, too (although it sucks when you make all the right moves and get unlucky, but that’s a broken record).    More importantly, at least for this post, it happens in handicapping sports.   As I’ve mentioned a couple times, I’m not posting my football picks here.   At this point, I’m glad I’m not.   I’m in one of those stretches where I’m just not seeing the games well.    I joke about going opposite, but that never works out.   You just have to kinda grind through the rough spots, and know that the hot streak is coming.   Or, at least the lukewarm streak is coming.   I’m going to keep picking, and I’ll let you know when to start tailing me.   a.k.a. not now.

For those that don’t know, I’m picking football games over at tiltstout.   Not so good so far.   I think I’m 3-8 overall.   I don’t see many games I like yet for this weekend, so I’m unlikely to gain much ground for awhile.

A better note is that my first article for the site is up.   WWJD.   Check it out.   Obviously, I’ll still be writing about football here, but I enjoyed writing this first article and am looking forward to it evolving and growing.

Free preview tomorrow/today.   Yes, I’ll be watching every one of the games.    Don’t bother me.

I know BYU beat OU, and that there were some other upsets in college football today.  But, really?   Roddick lost?   WTF?

Well, I’ve been asked by a tout (www.tiltstout.com) to submit my football picks over there this season.   I don’t feel like my football picks are usually as good as my bball picks, for reasons I’ve covered before.   And, since my picks are over there, I may just not put them here.   We’ll see.

I decided to look back at last year before posting this.   I still remember the NFL preview last year as the lost post.   That sucked.   But, I did go 4-2 in my fictional regular season win future bets, so I’m sure I’ll miss more than hit this year.   According to my extensive research, your best bets are as follows:

NYG over 10

SD over 9.5

PIT over 10.5

TB under 6.5

CLE under 7

JAX under 8

and OAK under 6.

Since futures are such bad bets in general, let me know if you want to have a friendly wager with me on any of these.

I know many of you are doing your drafts this weekend, so I thought I’d get this out.   It’s kinda what I wanted to do in the third segment of thejimshow fantasy football preview, but that ended up in more asshatery than analysis, so I’ll try to replicate it here.   I’m taking position 7 in a 14 man, so hopefully, I’ll be able to type a bit between picks.

R1 - I’m targeting DeAngelo Williams.   He’s making it to 7 in a lot of drafts, and he shouldn’t.   Well, not this one.   He goes 6.   I now have to chose between Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Gore.   Or, I could switch it up, but I think 7 is too early.   I go Steve Slaton and feel ok.   I am high on HOU this year.

R2 - 9 WR have gone since my pick.  Wow.   Ok, Brady is available, which is more likely in these that it is in a live draft.   Jennings is still there at WR, and I really like him.    But, Brian Westbrook is still there, too, and he’s the pick.   With a run on WR like that, there’s going to be a top RB slip, so I take advantage.

R3 - Ok, best available at each position.   TO at WR, KSmith at RB, and Witten at TE is in the mix, but I’ll get Aaron Rodgers and be happy with my QB position.   Not quite Brees, but that’s ok.

R4 - I need a WR.   I plan to go RB/WR or WR/RB in the next two rounds, and push back the TE spot unless Witten drops.   I put Witten and 5 RB and 5 WR on my queue and wait.   When it gets back to me, Marshawn Lynch is the only RB left, so I get him.   Suspended 3 weeks, passing offense, questions on his ability slipping, but I’m ok with him as my RB3.

R5 - Ok, have to go WR1, and Santonio Holmes is the only one left from the list I made a round ago.   Ideally, you’d want a notch higher of WR1, but that’s what happens when you reach for Rodgers.

R6 - Now, it’s best available for sure.   Not best available talent wise (because they have to fit my team) and I’m not taking best available according to the site (because then I should just put it on autodraft).   I go by my rankings.   Lee Evans, Antonio Bryant, and Lance Moore are who I’m targeting.   They are all still there when it gets to me.   I cross out Bryant because he’s got the same bye as Santonio.  Evans barely wins, but I might take Moore if put in the same situation tomorrow.

R7 - Ok, this is weird.   Lance Moore is still on the board, but I pull a changeup and take Owen Daniels.   I’ll regret this later, I think.   Moore is a GREAT WR3.

R8 - Ok, I’ve got QB and TE done.   I’ll wait on K and D, and I’ve got starters and one backup for both RB and WR, with no bye week issues.   I’m truly free now to just fill out my team.   This is great.   At every live draft, you see people suffering because it’s R8 and they realize they’ve got 3 RB with the same bye, or no clue how to address TE now that all their targets are gone, or whatever.   I’ve prepared.   I’m comfortable.   It’s nice.   Ok, I’ll take Chris Chambers.   I overrate this guy every year.   So, what the heck, why not do it again?

R9 - Wow, it got around quick this time.   Ummm, ok, I’ll take Josh Morgan, who’s loving every minute Trabtree holds out.

R10 - I’ll reach here and take Gostkowski.   I preach to take K and D in the last two rounds, but I have no Pats on my team, and I like them.   And, you know that offense is going to score.   I like Tynes as a late rounder, but there will be weeks where he gets 1 point.   I just don’t see that happening to Gostkowski.

R11 - Ummmm, ok, I suck.   This whole 14 team thing means that the last tier of draftable RB is all gone.   FUCK!!!!   I’ll just take Earl Bennett because I don’t like any RB left.   I only have 3 RB I like.   Not good.

R12 - Ok, time to pick some diamonds from the trash at RB.   Ricky Williams is off the board as I put him in my queue.   James Davis is gone, too.   Too early for Rashad Jennings; I’ll get him next round maybe.    Buckhalter or Ladell Betts?   I go Betts, but it’s a coin toss.

R13 - Yep, Rashad Jennings.   If MJD or Portis goes down, I’m sitting pretty.   Even if they don’t, Slaton, Westy, and Marshawn is a decent trio to pick two from, but you always want to get that All-Star team somehow.

R14 - Ok, I’m looking at the Raiders.   They usually put up good running numbers, but they have a 3 headed monster.    I like all three, but don’t know the pecking order.   I check the website and not only is Fargas ahead of Bush, he’s listed as the starter.   Done.

R15 - D time, and I gotta make sure I don’t interfere with my QB, TE, or K byes, so that when I start churning, I’m only churning one spot, not two.   Dallas is still there.   Perfect.   Not a great D, but they’ll get their points.

So, that’s it.   Every team is going to have problems.   You just have to pick your poison and plan to outmanage during the season.

QB - Rodgers

RB - Slaton, Westy, Lynch, Ladell, Rashad, and Fargas

WR - Santonio, Lee Evans, Chambers, Morgan, and Bennett

TE - ODaniels

K - Gostkowski

D - Dallas

I watched the ‘85-’88 Slam Dunk Contests today.  ‘Nique won in 1985.   Jordan looked very young, chomping gum and wearing multiple gold chains.   1986 has always been my favorite.   Spud Webb in Reunion Arena (no, I wasn’t there).   1987, Jordan won his first, then stole it from ‘Nique in Chicago in 1988, although it wasn’t as lopsided as 12 year old Jim might have thought.   The dunks were not nearly as high in wow-factor as you may think.   A lot of double pumps, windmills, kissing the rim, and catching it off the glass.    Awesome for then, not so much for now.   Makes you wonder what kids are going to be doing to wow us in 25 years from now.   The thing that was most interesting to me was that at the end of the 1985 video, David Stern made a quick appearance.   Somehow, as a basketball and NBA fan for as long as I have been, I forget that Stern has been commissioner the whole time.   As much as I may hate some of the things about Stern and the league, you gotta give him credit for longevity, which wouldn’t be possible if he hadn’t done a lot of things right during his tenure.   It’s kinda cool to have that kind of legacy, but at those kids impressing us in 25 years probably won’t even know who he is.   It’s all ephemeral, kid.

Cool coupla links for those that haven’t seen ‘em:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1T2QRpmjRmQ

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Suas0jhcPNI

Safina is the only one on either side that looks good right now.

I’m avoiding making a poker post. Lots of sng bad beats in the last 12 hours.